LegalShield Index Update: Battleground Legal Stress Drops, Points to Harris Win

Updated Dec. 6, 2024

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• Consumer legal stress tracker accurately signaled winner in last five presidential elections

• Battleground stress drops below national average, consistent with every Democratic win since2002

• LegalShield provider lawyer: “Gains in employment and lower interest rates grant some relief.”

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An analysis of the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) is signaling a win for Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election. The index tracks approximately 150,000calls per month from everyday Americans seeking legal help and has aligned with the last five presidential election outcomes.

“If this election follows the same pattern it has in the past five presidential elections, our data indicates a Democrat will win the election,” said Matt Layton, LegalShield senior vice president of consumer analytics. “The index is an analysis of 35-million datapoints since 2002, tracking the reasons why everyday Americans contact a lawyer. This consumer behavior has correlated to the victor in every presidential election since George W. Bush was re-elected.”

Historical Pattern Signals Election Outcome

In each presidential election year since 2004, when battleground states exhibited higher stress in October compared to the national average, a Republican was elected. When battleground states exhibited lower stress than the nation, a Democrat won.

In October, consumer stress in battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – dropped to its lowest level relative to the national average since 2020. This is consistent with a Democratic win.

“The decrease in battleground state stress is welcome news for American consumers,” said Otoniel “Otto” Salinas, LegalShield senior director of analytics. “Gains in employment and lower interest rates grant some relief, though housing costs remain elevated. The trend indicates reduced financial pressure in these key states.”

About the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index

The LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) is a proprietary measurement system that tracks the volume and types of legal issues that consumers bring to their LegalShield provider lawyers. The index analyzes this data and extrapolates it to indicate the level of consumer legal stress in specific regions of the United States.

About LegalShield

LegalShield is one of North America’s leading providers of legal services, offering individuals, families and businesses of all sizes access to professional legal counsel for a low monthly fee. In addition, the company’s IDShield brand provides identity protection services to individuals and families. LegalShield and IDShield have more than 4.8 million members across North America. LegalShield is headquartered in Ada, Oklahoma. For more information, visit LegalShield.com or contact [email protected].